Spoilers for all the Books Incoming
With the Red Wedding now committed to screen, the biggest shock moment in the series (well, possibly tied with Eddard's death) has now been experienced those who have not read the books. Many people are still probably rocking themselves back and forth, crying and maybe peeing a little in their pants.
The shocking death twists that come later in a Storm of Swords, however, are a little more on the "Destruction of Astapor" side of the cheering/despair scale.
Given how much happens after the Red Wedding, and particularly how the King's Landing plot is all about the aftermath of what I will call "The Purple Wedding," given the color of Joffrey's face as he asphyxiates (has any other book made you cheer as a teenage boy dies horribly in his mother's arms? Seriously, George, what the fuck?) it's kind of a relief to get this out of the way. The events happen quite close to each other, actually, and in fact there's a little bit of trepidation in King's Landing about having a wedding so soon after the massacre at The Twins. The Lannisters, probably at the height of their delusions of indestructibility, don't really worry about it, given that said massacre was their doing in the first place.
Given both the proximity of the events in the book and the fact that it is this event that really sets the ball rolling in the King's Landing plotline, I think this would be a great moment to end season four on. Not only does it put Tyrion in jeopardy, given Cersei and Tywin's hatred for him and their quickness to blame him, but it would also give viewers who feel that the whole series has been a triumph of evil over good a bit of schadenfreude and let the Lannisters know what it feels like to lose, and lose big.
I have to say, while I was certainly shocked, I wasn't terribly devastated when I read through the Red Wedding, except at the death of Catelyn. Robb was certainly a good guy, and you were rooting for him to avenge his father, but things had slipped so far into despair given how bungled his politics were, and ultimately I think the war between the Starks and Lannisters was a big distraction from the real conflict that is coming - that between the Others and the living (or, more likely, the Others and R'hollor. I suspect that the Others may not be as pure evil as we think they are and that R'hollor... well, we know he's not pure good, even if he has good and bad people working for him.) As soon as Winterfell was destroyed, I knew that I shouldn't sit around waiting for a big Stark victory.
One of the things that I think has made GoT appeal to people who aren't typically fantasy fans is that it's so steeped in realistic politics and the acidic (and yes, sometimes heartwarming) relationships between its characters. That said, I think that the promise of the series is for the fantastic to rear its ugly head and breathe fire over all of that. The Starks were good, and we liked them, but ultimately their conflict with the Lannisters was pettiness compared to what's north of the Wall. The Lannisters, especially given that Cersei is the only remaining one with any real power, see themselves as playing the long game, but in the face of the supernatural threats of the world, they're utterly unprepared.
It has been pointed out that ultimately, the only people who seem to survive and persist are those with a little magic up their sleeves. Stannis was definitely defeated at King's Landing, yet he continues to be a major force afterward. The Lannisters may have thought him gone, but basically the defeat at King's Landing frees him up to do what the King of Westeros should actually be doing, which is dealing with the Others. We likely won't see it until episode nine of season four (the standard "climax" episode on this show,) but Stannis does save the day when Jon is holding the wall against the Wildlings (poor Ygritte, by the way, especially given how much they've portrayed her on the show as being fully committed to Jon without realizing just how strong the pull of those "southern" rules are to a guy like him.) But the point is, whether he's really the second coming of fire-murder Jesus or not, Stannis has got some serious mojo working in his favor.
Likewise, Dany has actually escaped death multiple times, despite kind of inviting it on occasion. Her dragons play a big part in that, first saving her from the Undying, then winning her a huge army, and then flying her out of Mereen when they try to assassinate her. Not only is she immune to fire, which is a pretty good trick, but having those dragons means a lot.
The Lannisters are losing influence in King's Landing, and in fact, the secular war of succession against Stannis is becoming a religious one after Cersei makes the mistake of arming the church. So far we've only seen two of the major religions have any true magical powers - the Lord of Light does plenty, but Bran's druidic excursion shows that the Old Gods have some real potent stuff too. So I don't know if we're going to see the Seven do anything in particular, but it goes to show you that the Lannisters are ill-equipped.
In fact, there's a TV Trope called "Wrong Genre Savvy" that I think is often the major flaw of any character in this story. Ned thought he was in a traditional heroic fantasy story, where good and honor would triumph over evil. But the Lannisters, and in fact most of the villains in the story, are also wrong. They think that they're in a story of court intrigue and Machiavellian maneuvering. Even Varys and Littlefinger are playing this game - the game of thrones. But all the while, there is a very serious supernatural threat that is just getting bigger and bigger.
The state of the Night's Watch is a testament to how this attitude has infected the entire culture. There are many stories about how the Night's Watch used to be super-prestigious, just as much if not more than the Kingsguard. There used to be tons of people in it, and all 19 castles along the Wall were manned, instead of the three that are now. The Starks continue to gladly send their sons to serve there, such as Rickard and Jon, but elsewhere, no one gives a shit about it. The rule that your crimes were wiped clean when you took the black was meant to imply that there was so much honor to being in the watch that no one could doubt your commitment to good, but in the ages since its founding, they've instead simply used this rule as a loophole to get rid of criminals from your dungeons and orphans from your street.
Why would they found such a crazy order with all of its hard rules and intense training if there wasn't a serious threat to defend against? The Night's Watch isn't there to harass Wildlings. It's designed with a single purpose - to fight off an army of freaking zombies. But in its current state, it can hardly fend off a bunch of people with thick fur for armor and the training and discipline of... no training or discipline.
In fact, I think that it's Daenerys who is the only one equipped to deal with the problems here, even if for now she just thinks she's got a game-changing resource to win her political power in the form of her three dragons. The Night's Watch, the Wildlings, and Stannis all recognize the threat, but none of them has much more than a giant wall of ice to protect them from it (and guys, that wall is coming down. You just know it is.)
The point is, all the war and suffering we've witnessed has been the act of shortsighted, selfish idiots. Frankly, I think the Mad King actually did see something that was meant as a warning - advice to arm himself with fire, as it's the only thing that they can use to fight the Others. But he was crazy, and instead decided to burn everything there was, and that's how we got where we are now.
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